Steve Lawford

 

IENAC20 (PREV) Econometrics 1

 

LATEST ANNOUNCEMENTS

  • (31 Jan) Here is a link to the official distribution of the EViews 12 University Edition. As of today, it retails at around 45€ (6 month subscription). Please note that purchase of this software is not necessary for the course (it is installed in D2xx and Exx and Cxx, as well as the student residences). Moreover, we will use an earlier version (v6) in class; there are some differences between v6 and v12, especially in the syntax of the EViews programming language commands. The university version has no programming capability, although the drop-down menus can be used. There is also an EViews 12 Student Version Lite, which is free (online access, 64 bit machine only) but has additional data size restrictions, and does not allow you to save your work.
  • (31 Jan) Could one member of each empirical project group please send me an email, copying the other member(s) of that group, and simply including the name of each group member (and their email addresses, and - optionally - mobile #s). I need this by Thu 3 Feb, 17:00. Thank you.
  • (31 Jan) Welcome to the course, and good luck!

 

 

 

Course and content

Contact details and office hours: It is best to contact me by email with questions - since I receive a great deal of spam mail, please mark messages with "IENAC20" and / or "Econometrics 1", somewhere in the subject line, or send the emails from an enac.fr address, otherwise they may get lost. In case of problems, you can also contact me on Teams or by (internal) phone on 719532, or on the Hangouts thread.

Please contact me in advance BY EMAIL to arrange individual meetings, including the following information: (a) a precise (short) description of the problem, (b) any supporting data, files or illustrations (e.g. screenshots), (c) your availability and expected time required. Due to very heavy time constraints on my side, all meetings will have to be refused unless you follow this procedure.

Language: The lectures, classes, all course material, and the assessments, will be in English. If you find this difficult, then I will be happy to receive and reply to questions, and to give you advice or supervision, in French.

Content: This course provides some of the main technical tools necessary for the study of econometrics, and introduces the use of these techniques in applied work. We will rapidly refresh the necessary analytical methods, including matrix algebra, and probability and statistical theory, some of which were seen during the first year courses. We will also introduce multivariate regression, and show how to estimate, interpret and assess econometric models in a rigorous manner. The theory is illustrated with detailed empirical examples, using the commercial econometric software package EViews 6 / EViews 12. This course is a pre-requisite for the Econometrics 2 and Forecasting modules.

Cold calling: I will be "cold calling" you during this course, starting from Class 1. The aim of this is not to embarrass you, but simply to figure out whether you are understanding and following the course.

Textbook: I will use my own lecture notes on the subject, and further course material as appropriate. A printed version of all material will be given to you towards the end of the course, before the exam.

Please wait until I contact you before going to the Printshop to collect the polycopy! Thank you.

Optional homework: Following some of the lectures, optional homeworks (with given deadlines) may be announced, and will enable you to revise and develop the material covered during the lectures. These homework questions are not compulsory, but can be useful for your revision, and we will discuss them during class.

1 / to be announced

solutions to optional homeworks / to be posted here

A prize will be awarded for the final exam performance and for the empirical project.

Examinations (in the Econometrics 1 module):

(a) The final grade is partially based on an open-book written examination, in week 10 (~62% of grade): this will cover both applied and theoretical topics. You will not have computer access during the written examination.

(b) Further, there will be an empirical project, to be completed during the course. This will be assessed through a short report and oral presentation, in week 17 (~38% of grade).

Corrections and errors: Please contact me if you find any errors or typos in the course material, or on this website (mathematical or otherwise).

Administration:

Various I.E.s & BdP.

Teaching

24 hours of lectures and classes (these are interchangeable) and 4 hours of presentation sessions.

Lectures and classes will be held in weeks 2022 // 5 - 8 (Feb), and presentations in week 17 (April).

Class schedules are sometimes subject to change at short notice.

ENAC Intranet upcoming class schedules.

2022 //

Schedule for week 5

Mon 31 Jan 2022 - Class 1/12 - 13:15-15:15 -- room C15 #1, #2, #3, #4

Wed 2 Feb 2022 - Class 2/12 1/12 - 15:30-17:30 -- room C15 #5, #6, #7 [Empirical Project] #1 #2 #3

Fri 4 Feb 2022 - Class 3/12 2/12 - 13:15-15:15 -- room C15 #8, #9, #10 #3 #4 [Empirical Project]

✔ Deadline this week // [a] Thu 3 Feb 17:00 empirical group composition, by email (members + emails)

- outcome: Five groups formed

Schedule for week 6

Mon 7 Feb 2022 - Class 4/12 3/12 - 13:15-15:15 -- room C15 #11, #12, #13 #4 #5

Wed 9 Feb 2022 - Class 5/12 4/12 - 15:30-17:30 -- room C15 #14, #15, #16, #17 #5 #6 (#7 required / out-of-class)

Fri 11 Feb 2022 - Class 6/12 5/12 - 13:15-15:15 -- room C15 #18, #19, #20 #8 #10 (#9 required / out-of-class)

✔ Deadline this week // [b] Mon 7 Feb 12:00 open a free Overleaf account (http://www.overleaf.com/)

- outcome: Done

✔ Deadline this week // [c] Fri 11 Feb 17:00 installation and / or successful testing of all useful "freeware"/ in particular, Overleaf + Hangouts (Chat) + Jamboard / and EViews (any version)

- outcome: Done

Schedule for week 7

Mon 14 Feb 2022 - Class 7/12 6/12 - 13:15-15:15 -- room C15 #21, #22, #23, #24 #12 #13 #14 #15

Wed 16 Feb 2022 - Class 8/12 7/12 - 15:30-17:30 -- room C15 #25, #26 #15 #16 #17 #18

Fri 18 Feb 2022 - Class 9/12 8/12 - 13:15-15:15 -- room C15 #27, #28, #29, #30, #31 #19 #20

Deadline this week // [d] Mon 14 Feb 20:00 first project title and proposal

- outcome: Done

Schedule for week 8

Mon 21 Feb 2022 - Class 10/12 9/12 & Class 11/12 10/12 - 13:15-15:15 & 15:30-17:30 (4hr slot) -- room C15 (for class 10) #32, #33, #34, #35, #36, #37, #38 (for class 11) #39, #40, #41, #42, #43, #44 #21 #22 #23 (#25 #26 required / out-of-class) (second class: worked on APS1)

Wed 23 Feb 2022 - Class 12/12 11/12 - 15:30-17:30 -- room C15 #45, #46, #47, #48, #49, #50 (first hour: completed APS1) #24

Fri 25 Feb 2022 - Class 12/12 - 13:15-15:15 -- room C15 #27 #28 #30 #31 #32 #34 #35

Fri 25 Feb 2022 - Visiting Speaker (tba) - 14:15-17:15 (3hr slot) -- room Amphi Bréguet

Deadline this week // [e] Wed 23 Feb 20:00 final validation of project titles and plan

- outcome: Done

Schedule for week 9

no classes this week

I will prepare your polycopy (class notes) this week

- outcome: Done

Schedule for week 10

✔ Mon 7 Mar 2022 - FINAL WRITTEN EXAMINATION - 13:15-15:15 -- room Bréguet

(Econometrics 2 module starts - see Econometrics 2 webpage)

Schedule for week 11

(Econometrics 2 module continues - see Econometrics 2 webpage)

Schedule for week 12

(Econometrics 2 module continues - see Econometrics 2 webpage)

Schedule for week 13

(Econometrics 2 exam - see Econometrics 2 webpage)

Schedule for week 14

(Forecasting module starts - see Forecasting webpage)

Schedule for week 15

(Forecasting module continues - see Forecasting webpage)

Schedule for week 16

(Forecasting module continues - see Forecasting webpage)

Schedule for week 17

✔ Mon 25 Apr 2022 - 13:15-17:15 -- room Amphi Bréguet -- ** PRESENTATIONS ** new

Project groups (in presentation order)

(*) 13:20-13:40 -- group 1 -- Xiangyu, Simone, Wenbo, Shuo -- "Divorce"

15 minute discussion + 15 minute break

(*) 14:10-14:30 -- group 2 -- Thaïs, Jules, Maxence, Estelle -- "CEO rankings"

15 minute discussion + 15 minute break

(*) 15:00-15:20 -- group 3 -- Pierre-Antoine, Ashraf, Stéphane -- "Life expectancy"

15 minute discussion + 15 minute break

(*) 15:50-16:10 -- group 4 -- Lorenzo, François-Xavier, Charles -- "The value of performance in the NBA"

15 minute discussion + 15 minute break

(*) 16:40-17:00 -- group 5 -- Afsaneh, Yoosef, Thomas -- "CO2 emissions"

15 minute discussion

Deadline // [f] Fri 29 Apr 20:00 final deadline for receipt of the report and all supporting material

- outcome: Done

(Forecasting module continues - see Forecasting webpage)

Schedule for week 18

(Econometrics 2 paper presentations - see Econometrics 2 webpage)

Schedule for week 19

no classes this week

Schedule for week 20

no classes this week

Schedule for week 21

(Forecasting exam - see Forecasting webpage)

 

Resources

Past empirical economics presentations

IENAC19 PREV //

(111) "Are you adventurous?"- Arthur + Evangéline + Victoria

(110) "Hate crimes" - Martin + Romy + Vincent

(109) "Sunshine and happiness" - Leonard + Romain D + Yasmine

(108) "Analysis of ICOs" - Romain B + Ronan

(107) "Popular music" - Jiayi + Marouane

IENAC18 PREV //

(106) "What influences passenger complaints for airlines?"- Hao + Armand + Wei

(105) "What drives CO2 emissions?" - Gwendal + Théo + Antoine

(104) "Which prisoners are likely to reoffend?" - Amal + Alex

IENAC17 PREV //

(103) "Sovereign ratings" - Louis + Lilian

(102) "Absence from class" - Alexandre + Emilien

(101) "Life expectancy" - Tanguy + Paul

(100) "What is a football player worth?" - Sébastien + Cédric + Zhen

(99) "Queueing" - Marie + Lucie

(98) "Messaging apps" - Dina + Benjamin

(97) "Are you a compulsive consumer?" - Clément + Mathis

(96) "Sentiment analysis" - Yohann + Bruno

IENAC16 PREV //

(95) "Choice of travel destination" - Romain + Louis

(94) "Facebook and online relationships" - Auriane + Antoine

(93) "How long do you sleep?" - Jérôme + Adam

(92) "Predicting football results" - Fadi + Loïc

(91) "Online dating" - Milad + Axelle

(90) "Consumer behaviour in the clothing industry" - Kyu-Bin + Nicolas R

(89) "Predicting the Rio Olympics" - Nicolas H + Alexandre L

(88) "Movie box office" - Alexandre C + Arthur

(87) "CEO compensation" - Hélèna + Théo

IENAC15 PREV //

(86) "Is ENAC for the élite?" - Martin + Lucas + Pablo

(85) "Who likes Nutella?" - Sandra + Victor + Sébastien

(84) "Uber" - Guillaume + Pierre + Xavier

(83) "Football betting odds" - Yll + Hugo + Kévin

(82) "Airline travel choice" - Marius + Edouard + Louis

(81) "The impact of sporting results" - Viktor + Julian

(80) "Is rugby for girls?" - Alexandra + Léo + Marion

(79) "Airline travel choice" - Yanis + Heïdi + Lucie

IENAC14 PREV //

(78) "The size of airports in France" - Cassandre + Valentin F.

(77) "What wine do you like to drink?" - Julie + Lucas + Maxence

(76) "How sporty are you?" - Florian + Guillaume

(75) "Why do people vote F.N.?" - Matthieu + Hugo + Sarah

(74) "Is there a gender gap in mathematics? Evidence from the I.M.O." - Bastien + Valentin L.-L.

(73) "Who eats organic?" - Gonzague + Valentin J.

(72) "What makes a successful movie?" - Ghislain + Maxime + Théo

(71) "Are left-handers more successful in sport?" - Alexandre + Ganesh

(70) "The value of secure communication" - Felix B. + Felix M. + Julien

IENAC13TE //

(69) "Going to the movies" - Romain Fl. + Erwann + Thibault

(68) "Why be unfaithful?!" - Jérémy + Jules + Alexis

(67) "Video games" - Guillaume + Louis + Jean-Marie

(66) "How to travel?" - Patxi + Romain Fa. + Aurore

(65) "Politics" - Luc + Benjamin + Paul

(64) "TV shows" - Laura + Elsa + Xavier

(63) "Our relationship with chocolate" - Chloé + Thomas + Marie

(62) "Gambling" - Arthur + Arnaud

IENAC12TE //

(61) "Why buy an iPhone?" - Raphaël + Mathilde

(60) "U.S. airline delays" - Cédric + Magali

(59) "Why do people buy shoes?" - Floriane + Bérénice

(58) "Holiday budget" - Frédéric + Nicolas

(57) "The key to happiness" - Flore-Lou + Thomas

(56) "Who goes to AirExpo?" - Michael + Vincent (http://www.airexpo.org/)

(55) "Restaurant budget" - Jérôme + Thibault

(54) "Is ENAC bad for your health?" - Margaux + Elise

IATOM13 //

(53) "Why buy a smartphone?" - Tom + Kaidi + Francesca-Cristina

(52) "Why study abroad?" - Bruno + Eliza + Matthias

(51) "Drinking habits" - Shafina + Damien + Aria + Tarak

(50) "Drugs" - Aldo + Benison + Yasser + Joel

(49) "Real estate" - Eric + Adel + Sharath

(48) "Understanding birth rate variation" - Jithin + Etienne + Raaghul

(47) "The cost of mobile broadband" - Zhiwei + Adrian + Yongdon

(46) "What determines aircraft market share?" - Sophie + Ruiyang + Jeyhun

(45) "The sources of charisma" - Pratick + Nitish + Renata + Gabriella

IENAC11TE //

(44) "Who plays rugby?" - Erik + Séléné + Ghislain

(43) "IENACT selection procedures" - Etienne L de L + Pierre-Marie

(42) "Why get married?" - Yvanne + Marine

(41) "What makes a Major League Baseball team win?" - Julie + Maxime

(40) "Girls in engineering schools" - Jérôme + Maryne

(39) "Winners and losers in the NBA" - Etienne L + Tanguy

(38) "Online dating" - Marion + Iry

(37) "Predicting olympic gold" - Adem + Romaric

(36) "How much did you pay for your car?" - Christophe + Clément

(35) "Passenger growth at Hong Kong airport" - Alexandre + Aurélien

IATOM12 //

(34) "Why do people buy Macs?" - Xavier + Yvan

(33) "Partners" - Remzi + Romain + Lionel

(32) "Height" - Douwe + Antonina + Tanguy

(31) "Suicide" - Yuxin + Macarena + Maria

(30) "What makes a CEO?" - Madhuri + Shun + Rajachandran

(29) "Hospital activity and health care" - Julien + Jennifer

(28) "Seasonal consumption" - Guillaume + Lucie + Clément

(27) "Road traffic fatalities" - Marion + Kalyanagugan + Ahmed

(26) "Is drinking (wine) good for your health?" - Maryna + Tao + Raju

(25) "Low costs" - Nandhagopal + Adrien

(24) "McDonald's" - Xueqing + Ilke + Zhenni

IENAC10TE //

(23) "Statistical study on the effects of ENAC student life on forthcoming professional life" - Nicolas + Paul *

(22) "Divorce rate" - François + Laure

(21) "Determinants of economic growth" - Guillaume + Lucas

(20) "Abstention rate - Being parents" - Marine de M + Clothilde *

(19) "Wage determination in the US" - Marion + Jean

(18) "An investigation on asthma risk factors" - Rémi + Samy

(17) "Fertility rate" - Francisco + Pol

(16) "Departure delays in American airports" - Caroline + Quitterie

(15) "Football players price in the transfer market" - Clémence + Shervin *

(14) "Analysis of the professional mobility of the ENAC engineers" - Sébastien + Sylvain

(13) "Criminality and police workforce in the US" - Marek + Thibaut *

(12) "Modeling the number of passengers in air transport on a specific route" - Jeremy + Luc

(11) "Body mass index" - Marine D + Jonathan *

IATOM11 (without links) //

(10) HEIGHT & WEIGHT - Clothilde + Laura + Louis

(9) BIRTHS - Lekan + Felicia + Sarah

(8) SPORTS - Thomas C + Maxime + Thomas V

(7) CRIME - Guillaume + Dimitri + Alexis

(6) SUNSHINE - Nicolas C + Issam + Claire

(5) CEOs - Florent + Justine + Marc

(4) GRADES - Joseph + Nicolas + Maxence

(3) GAMBLING - Lukas + Martin + Prem *

(2) MOVIES - Renaud + Beata + Iwona

(1) TRADING - Hugues + Jing

Applied Problem Sets new

(1) Applied Problem Set 1 / EViews 6 menus

(2) Applied Problem Set 2 / EViews 6 programming / moved to Econometrics 2 module

Data

(1) Cigarette data for Applied Problem Set 1 / EViews 6 menus

(2) Metals data for Applied Problem Set 2 / EViews 6 programming / moved to Econometrics 2 module

Statistical tables

(1) Statistical tables

Past exams new

IENAC12 Econometrics 1 exam [house sales data] [solutions]

Freeware for applied work (in "Twenty Easy Steps")

==================================== RECOMMENDED ====================================

I suggest the following software as a starting point for Econometrics 1:

a) Overleaf

b) Python Anaconda

c) Google Drive

d) Google Chat

e) Google Jamboard

f) RStudio

g) pdftk

h) EViews (Lite version is free)

In the following, references (6), (12), (13), (14), (19), (20) are still useful

======================= OLDER SOFTWARE AND REFERENCE MATERIAL =======================

There is often some discussion about the use of LaTeX rather than Word, and of Beamer rather than Powerpoint (or equivalents). Here is a nice summary of some of the advantages and drawbacks of LaTeX for written reports: http://www.andy-roberts.net/writing/latex/benefits. On LaTeX presentations, the advantages are less clear-cut: http://tex.stackexchange.com/questions/41116/advantage-of-latex-presentations. Your choice for presentations after this course is over will depend upon (a) how much mathematics you need to include, (b) your personal view on the LaTeX style and philosophy, (c) how much time you have available to prepare. Both LaTeX and Powerpoint have advantages, depending upon your audience, and the content of your talk. I will be interested to have your feedback on your experience with LaTeX and Beamer during and after the course.

(1) WinEdt [TeX front-end]

(2) MiKTeX [typesetting / I use a Windows machine. However, a useful site for Mac distributions of TeX is http://www.tug.org/mactex/.]

- note: an alternative platform to (1) and (2), that enables collaborative LaTeX, is Overleaf (I used Overleaf to work on this project and this one as well as this one! and this one!! and this one!!!)

(3) JabRef [TeX bibliographic]

JabRef should apparently work without problems if you have a Mac: "JabRef runs on the Java VM (version 1.6 or newer), and should work equally well on Windows, Linux and Mac OS X."

(4) KDiff3 [text file comparison]

(5) Dropbox [online backup and file sharing]

- note: I now use Google Drive

(6) pdftk [pdf manipulation]

(7) Extended Python installation (paper) [scientific programming; see Section 2 and footnote 4] * OPTIONAL *

- note: I now use Python Spyder, which is ** much ** more convenient than the set-up given in the above paper; here are installation instructions for the 62 bit version, on a Windows 7 machine; and later, Python Anaconda for Python 3, on a Windows 10 machine:

"""

The Python installer is here:

http://sourceforge.net/projects/winpython/files/WinPython_2.7/2.7.6.4/

You need to download the file WinPython-32bit-2.7.6.4.exe (or the 64bit version if you have a newer machine). I run the 62bit version on a Windows 7 machine.

Save the .exe in a convenient folder, called Spyder, and then run it (double-click). This will create a new folder in the same location as the .exe, called WinPython-64bit-2.7.6.4, which is 1GB in size, and which itself contains various folders and files.

Open the folder WinPython-64bit-2.7.6.4 and create a shortcut to the Spyder .exe. Put the shortcut somewhere convenient (on the desktop is a good idea, so that you can find it easily).

That is all. When you double-click on the Spyder shortcut, a split-screen interface will open. You will be able to load Python files from any location (including a project folder, and not necessarily from where you saved the above folders), and view / edit them in the left-hand-side screen. When you execute the Python files, the output will be displayed in the right-hand-side screen.

I am using Python 2.7.6. You may see references to Python 3. Please do not download this. Essentially, Python 2 and Python 3 have some different syntax, even for basic operations. Rather than replacing Python 2, as you might expect, Python 3 is being developed in parallel with Python 2. I do not yet see any reason to move to Python 3.

"""

(8) LaTeX preamble file [required by (9), defines some settings, commands]

(9) LaTeX report template file [an example file for LaTeX reports]

(10) LaTeX bibliography template file [required by (9), stores references (citations)]

(11) Illustrative graphics files required by (9): [jpg file] and [pdf file]

- I will give you an Overleaf template, including (8)--(11); this will generate (15)

(12) Introduction to LaTeX [local version]

(13) LaTeX symbol list [online version] [local version]

(14) LaTeX math tricks [online version] [local version]

(15) Compiled LaTeX file [click PDF TeXify (one of the "bear buttons") in WinEdt, with (1,2,3) installed and (8,9,10,11) in the same folder; the pdf will be generated automatically from the LaTeX file]

(16) A good LaTeX report (by Jérôme Duguet and Maryne Floch-Le Goff, IENAC11TE) "Why do girls enter engineering schools?" [note that they customized the formatting]

(17) LaTeX Beamer presentation template file [an example file for LaTeX presentations]

- I will give you an Overleaf template, including (17); this will generate (18)

(18) Compiled LaTeX Beamer file [presentation version] [handout version] [click PDF TeXify in WinEdt, with (1,2,3) and the Beamer package automatically installed and (10,11) in the same folder; the pdf will be generated from the LaTeX Beamer file]. Note that the preamble line \documentclass{beamer} is used for presentation slides, and \documentclass[handout]{beamer} collapses all animations and is used for presentation handouts.

(19) A small selection of LaTeX Beamer resources (all local versions) [Batts 2007 presentation] [Beamer official documentation] [Hoff 2007 primer] [Mertz and Slough 2005 primer] [Vallverdu 2008 primer (in French)] [Beamer math fonts]

(20) An example of a research presentation using Beamer [and here is another, more recent, example (the animation is here)] [and a research poster]

Videos and supporting material

(1) Freakonomics film trailer

(2) Please check the Freakonomics Twitter feed regularly for novel applications of economic theory and "economic thinking". Steve Levitt won the John Bates Clark medal in 2003, and is a Professor of Economics at Chicago, known especially for his applied work on crime, education, race, and cheating.

(3) Here is Donohue and Levitt's paper on the impact of legalized abortion on crime: http://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levitt/Papers/DonohueLevittTheImpactOfLegalized2001.pdf

(4) Roland Fryer on field experiments [Colbert Nation]

(5) Here is the paper on the "financial incentives for students" field experiment that Roland Fryer talks about on The Colbert Report: [link to paper] (Note: this paper refers to experiments run in Dallas, not Washington as mentioned in the video clip; as well as Chicago and New York)

(6) Here is a 15 min talk by Emily Oster on empirical work on AIDs in Africa: [local version] http://www.ted.com/talks/emily_oster_flips_our_thinking_on_aids_in_africa.html.

(7) Here is an article on the impact of changing traffic laws on fatalities: https://object.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa346.pdf.

(8) Here is a paper by Marianne Bertrand and Sendhil Mullainathan on labour market discrimination: http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/marianne.bertrand/research/papers/emily_lakisha_aer.pdf.

(9) Here is a link to a paper by Jennifer Doleac and Luke Stein on racial discrimination in online transactions: http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/VisibleHand_Doleac.pdf.

(10) Here is a paper by Steve Levitt on use of repeated interactions in estimating the impact of campaign spending on election outcomes: http://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levitt/Papers/LevittUsingRepeatChallengers1994.pdf.

(11) The International Mathematical Olympiad website is here: http://www.imo-official.org/?language=en. Here is the trailer of a documentary, Hard Problems, that gives a flavour of what the competition is all about: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kxi_uzPLqV0. (Alternatively, Google ``hard problems movie'').

(12) Here is a paper by Angrist and Krueger that uses quarter-of-birth as an instrument for education on salary: http://www.uh.edu/~adkugler/Angrist&Krueger_CS.pdf. The raw data is downloadable from: http://economics.mit.edu/faculty/angrist/data1.

(13) Bettencourt and West's idea of attaining a critical mass of concentrated population in a city (which may subsequently lead to innovation) has parallels in the architectural design of some modern research facilities: http://projectmanager.com.au/news/collaborative-architecture-research-facility-19102011/. [Images] For fun, see what Google does to foster innovation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=clbut_xq67Q.

(14) An example of Google Doc "Analytics" (simple survey result descriptives)

Nobel Prizes for Economics with a strong empirical or econometric focus (2000 onwards)

2021 / Joshua Angrist (1/4) David Card (1/2) Guido Imbens (1/4)

2019 / Abhijit Banerjee (1/3) Esther Duflo (1/3) Michael Kremer (1/3)

2013 / Gene Fama (1/3) Lars Peter Hansen (1/3) Robert Shiller (1/3)

2011 / Thomas Sargent (1/2) Christopher Sims (1/2)

2003 / Robert Engle (1/2) Clive Granger (1/2)

2000 / James Heckman (1/2) Daniel McFadden (1/2)

Blogs / podcasts / columns

(1) Freakonomics blog / podcasts (Steve Levitt, Stephen Dubner)

(2) Paul Krugman's New York Times columns [this was previously The Conscience of a Liberal blog]


Reading list

Journal and media articles, and book chapters:

(1) Goolsbee, A. and Syverson, C. (2008), "How do incumbents respond to the threat of entry? Evidence from the major airlines", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 123: 1611-1633

(2) Jia, P. & Pathak, P. A. (2010), "The impact of commissions on home sales in Greater Boston", American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, 100: 475-79

(3) Blue, L. (2011), "The science of health", Scientific American, October 2011: 18-19

This short Scientific American article discusses exceptions to the empirical "rule" that higher income or levels of formal education correspond to greater longevity and better health. The "healthy immigrant effect" and the "Hispanic paradox" in the U.S. appear to run counter to this rule, and the article first raises a number of reasonable popular explanations before detailing research on the effects of smoking behaviour on life expectancy, by ethnic group. One main finding is that "smoking explained more than 75 percent of the difference in life expectancy at age 50 between Hispanic and non-Hispanic white men". (Here is the author's Princeton PhD)

The work illustrates the importance of (a) asking good questions, (b) challenging the conventional wisdom with new data and appropriate techniques, (c) expressing mathematical or statistical results in plain English (always remember to answer the question that you have asked, and to focus on intuition and interpretation), and (d) providing policy advice or forecasts where appropriate (here, the author suggests that the relative rise of smoking in the developing world will annihilate the immigrant advantage and the Hispanic paradox within the next 20 years or so).

(4) Bettencourt, L. M. A. and West, G. B. (2011), "Bigger cities do more with less", Scientific American, September 2011: 38-39

(5) Fryer, R. J. (2011), "Financial incentives and student achievement: Evidence from randomized trials", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 126: 1755-1798 [this is a working paper version]

(6) Cabolis, C. and Clerides, S. and Ioannou, I. and Senft, D. (2007), "A textbook example of international price discrimination", Economics Letters, 95: 91-95

(7) Jensen, R. T. and Miller, N. H. (2008), "Giffen behavior and subsistence consumption", American Economic Review, 98: 1553-1577

(8) Levitt, S. D. and Dubner, S. (2005), "Why do drug dealers still live with their Moms?", Chapter 3 of "Freakonomics" see Additional Reading (9) below, for a discussion of the academic research behind this chapter

(9) Levitt, S. D. and Venkatesh, S. A. (2000), "An economic analysis of a drug-selling gang's finances", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 115: 755-89 - see Additional Reading (8) above, for a popular account of this research

(10) Hirshleifer, D. and Shumway, T. (2003), "Good day sunshine: Stock returns and the weather", Journal of Finance, 58: 1009-1032

Textbooks (for reference only):

A comprehensive econometrics reference is Greene, W. H. (2000), Econometric Analysis, 4th edition, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall / Chapters 1-4 matrix algebra, statistical theory, Chapter 6 multivariate regression, Chapter 7 inference. [A revised 6th edition is available in the library]

Of particular use for the topic of matrix algebra is Abadir, K. M. and Magnus, J. R. (2005), Matrix Algebra, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press / Chapter 1 vectors, Chapter 2 matrices, Chapter 3 vector spaces, Chapter 4 rank, inverse, determinant, Chapter 5 partitioned matrices, Chapter 6 systems of equations, Chapter 7 eigenvalues and eigenvectors, Chapter 8 positive (semi) definite, and idempotent matrices, Chapter 9 matrix functions, Chapter 10 Kronecker products, vec operator, Moore-Penrose inverse.

 

Assessment